LTC 636-2019 Southeast Florida Climate Compact Sea Level Rise Update MIAMI BEACH
OFFICE OF THE CITY MANAGER
NO. LTC# 636-2019 LETTER TO COMMISSION
TO: Mayor Dan Gelber and Members • the City I ommission
FROM: Jimmy L. Morales, City Manager ill" _
DATE: December 9, 2019
SUBJECT: Southeast Florida Climate Compac Sea Level Rise Update
The annual Southeast Florida Climate Change Compact Summit was held Dec 3rd—5th. The City of Miami
Beach actively participates in the Compact meetings and workshops throughout the year. I am pleased
to share that a cross-disciplinary Miami Beach team attended the summit.
As anticipated, Compact released the 2019 Sea Level Rise Projection at the Summit(graphic below). The
projection is a key planning tool produced by the Compact to aid in understanding of vulnerabilities and
to provide a basis for adaptation strategies, policies, and infrastructure design in the Southeast Florida
region. The shaded zone between the IPCC median curve and the NOAA Intermediate High is
recommended to be generally applied to most projects within a short -term planning horizon. In
comparison to the 2015 projection, this projection shows slightly higher curves overall, given the rate of
ice sheet melt and the incorporation of regional effects. In early next year,the Compact plans on sharing
the supporting guidance and resource document that will further explain the projection and how to
practically use it for planning purposes.
Unified Sea Level Rise Projection
200 (Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact,2019)
IPCC NOAA
6
Intermediate NOAA HI 175 NOAA Extreme
LL 5. (inch180 Year Median es) High High (inches) P
m 160 Inches
• ;3_, 204010 17 21
>.
— 140 _ 136
NOAA High
g
Y > 2070 21 40 54
m 312 0
c ,t,
2120 40 92 136
10 c 100 -- 92 NOAA
ai O 50 Year Planning Horizon ,• Intermediate High
> 80
64•,•
3 e•to ..)7. 60 54i
w r
Tv• v▪ 40 Observed �' 40 40 IPCC Median
cc
L 20 5-Year Average 17�•
_- Mean sea Level — 21
0 10
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120
Year
This is the third update of the Compact's Regionally Unified Sea Level Rise Projection. The Compact first
produced the Regionally Unified Sea Level Rise Projection for SEFL in 2012 and updated the projection in
2015. The city adopted the 2015 projection through Resolution 2016-29317
Using the best available science and engineering is an important foundation of the city's overall resilience
planning. I look forward to providing the new projection and resource document for Mayor and City
Commission review and adoption this winter as they become available.
Please contact me or Amy Knowles at amvknowles@miamibeachfl.gov or x7010 with any questions
regarding this memorandum.
JM/AK -7