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❑ mn SECOND LOSS FILLS CASINO BACKERS WITH DOUBTS 11/05/1986
THE MIAMI NEWS
Copyright (c) 1986, The Miami News
DATE: Wednesday, November 5, 1986 EDITION: THREE-STAR
SECTION: INSIDE PAGE: 11A LENGTH: 151 lines
ILLUSTRATION: Stephen Muss, left, and Dave Kennedy after receiving
word of casino referendum defeat (Special to The Miami News
-- JOE RAEDLE)
SOURCE/CREDIT LINE: ROBERT JOFFEE and MICHAEL CARRIER Miami News Reporters
MEMO: ELECTION 86
SECOND LOSS FILLS CASINO BACKERS WITH DOUBTS
After getting clobbered at the polls for the second time in eight years,
pro-casino leaders in Dade were not completely ruling out a third try -- but
they were teetering.
"I think now, for the issue to be considered again, another state, like
Louisiana or Pennsylvania, would have to approve casinos and have success with
them for the people of Florida to change their minds, " said Miami Beach
)hotelier Stephen Muss. He chaired the Citizens for County Choice Committee
and bankrolled the operation with more than $1.2 million of his own money.
Almost wistfully, casino backers said they may have made a mistake in
departing from the 1978 ballot language that would have limited casinos to a
narrow strip along the Gold Coast.
Finally, they said, the Atlantic City casino experience -- at best a
mixed bag of results -- may have killed them even though they continued to
insist that the New Jersey experiment is irrelevant to the potential for
casinos in Florida.
The controversial state constitutional amendment -- which would have
given counties the option of legalizing hotel-casinos in subsequent county
referendums -- was rejected by a vote of 2,120,462 to 987,890 or more than 2
to 1, with 97 percent of the vote tallied by early today.
Leaders of No Casinos in Florida, the principal anti-casino committee,
had long predicted that a victory as big as yesterday's would discourage
pro-casino forces for years to come, and, if the remarks of the principal
casino backers last night is an indicator, they might be correct.
The casino amendment was opposed in almost all of Florida's 67 counties,
with Dade a notable exception. The vote in Dade, which many observers had
expected to be a pro-casino stronghold, was 193, 808 in favor and 176,836
opposed, or about 8 to 7 in favor of casinos, with all precincts tallied. In
Broward, 183, 882 voted against casinos, while 175, 844 were in favor.
The lopsided statewide defeat appeared to shock pro-casino forces, who
laid the blame for the loss on the press and business leaders in Dade, many of
whom fought the proposal.
"It was unfair in this campaign for the anti-casino forces to compare the
issue here with Atlantic City," said Muss, who has noted the vast differences
in the economics, geography and population of the two regions.
Anti-casino forces homed in on Atlantic City's crime rate and squalor as
examples of what would happen if casinos came to Florida.
Muss, embittered by the overwhelming defeat of the $3.4 million
casino-legalization effort, said he "probably would not" become involved in
the casino issue again because of the time it took from his business and
family. Muss is the principal owner of Miami Beach's Fontainebleau Hilton.
David Kennedy, the pro-casino campaign executive director, echoed Muss'
sentiments -- but went further, adding that the state's economy would have to
plummet and the social and voting patterns of most of the state would have to
change for the issue ever to have a chance.
Kennedy said casino backers, if they try again, should spell out exactly
where casinos would be permitted. He said the drive was hurt by making the
issue a county-choice referendum.
"A lot of counties thought that the county next to them would get casinos
and that scared people, " Kennedy said. He suggested limiting casinos to Dade
and Broward counties, strictly along the beach, as a way of calming fears
about rampant crime and casinos invading neighborhoods.
"If it is just for Dade and Broward, the economic areas that really need
casinos, then businessmen and voters throughout the state would know they
don't have to worry about a casino popping up next door, " Kennedy said.
"You could allow casinos on the beach from 41st Street north so no
elderly people would lose their homes on South Beach, and a lot of the
problems we faced might disappear, " he said.
While the anti-casino victory was overwhelming, the leaders of the
winning effort were less than happy about the way the campaign went.
Miami developer Armando Codina, the No Casinos chairman in Dade,
complained that his group's statewide leadership had failed to meet its
fund-raising responsibilities and had wasted money on ineffective advertising
in South Florida.
"If this ever comes up again, " Codina said, "I'm recommending a localized
ad campaign, and that any money raised in South Florida be spent in South
Florida. "
Muss focused on money problems in the pro-casino campaign as well.
"Our big problem was the people like to be involved with winners, " he
said. "As newspaper opinion polls kept showing us as a loser, it became more
and more difficult to raise money."
He said his committee had fallen nearly $2 million short of its $5.5
million fund-raising goal, a fact he attributed to newspaper reports that he
said suggested "the whole campaign would be funded by the hotel industry. "
Less than 20 percent of the $3.4 million spent by County Choice came from
outside the hotel industry, Muss said.
Bob Carter, executive director of No Casinos, said his group raised and
spent "only about $1. 8 million" -- $700,000 less than its $2.5 million target.
Almost half of the No Casinos money was raised in Dade, Codina said. He
complained of "apathy" in Central and North Florida. "We wound up subsidizing
the campaign in the rest of the state."
Although No Casinos was outspent nearly two-to-one, Spanish-language TV
advertising by a group of anti-casino parimutuel interests tended to even the
score. "Those ads were very effective," Codina said.
The possibility of a big pro-casino advantage on the airwaves was wiped
out in late September, when County Choice canceled more than $600, 000 in TV
ads.
Muss denied speculation that the cuts were made because he and other
backers decided not to throw good money after bad. He said private polls done
for County Choice showed that "whenever we linked the issue to the county
option, the polls showed we had a winner. "
As for strategy, both sides apparently failed, according to a recent poll
conducted by Mason-Dixon Opinion Research for The Miami News and other Florida
news organizations.
Although a plurality of voters agreed with the County Choice group's
"local control" argument, many of the same voters -- when confronted with the
convoluted language on the ballot -- said they would vote against approval of
that language.
In other words, County Choice won the argument without winning support
for the ballot measure, according to the poll.
As for the No Casinos argument -- that casinos were bad for Atlantic City
and would have the same harmful effects in Florida -- that apparently didn't
persuade many people, either.
The poll found that voters were much more likely to oppose the ballot
measure than to agree with the No Casinos argument.
Returns showed that this year's casino referendum was helped only
marginally, if at all, by several advantages that weren't available in 1978 --
the only other time a casino- legalization measure appeared on a statewide
ballot.
* The 1978 measure would have legalized casinos only along the oceanfront
in Miami Beach; it offered nothing to attract voters elsewhere in the state.
This year's "county option" feature was designed to broaden the appeal.
* In the eight years since 1978, the Florida electorate has expanded to
include higher percentages of Baby Boomers, Cuban- Americans and migrants
attracted by the Sun Belt job market -- all groups that, according to most
opinion polls, are more likely to favor casino gambling. Meanwhile, senior
citizens and native white Southerners, groups likely to oppose casinos, have
come to represent smaller shares of the electorate.
* During those eight years, gambling has become more socially acceptable.
Popular culture more frequently features images of people having fun at gaming
tables, such as those on television's "Love Boat." And, because of Atlantic
City, the percentage of Americans who have had personal experience with
casinos has grown sharply.
However, opponents of casinos also acquired some advantages during those
years.
* In 1978, Florida was suffering from a recession. Now, it's in an upturn
-- a fact that reduces the appeal of casinos as a tool for increasing tourism
or raising revenue for state government.
* With overall economic growth in the state, the percentage of Floridians
who depend on tourism for their income has diminished considerably -- even in
Dade.
An exit poll of more than 1,300 Dade voters by WLTV-Channel 23 found the
strongest support for casinos among Hispanic voters, 57 percent of whom voted
yes. Among non-Hispanic whites, 53 percent favored the measure; among
non-Hispanic blacks, only 38 percent supported the measure.
Statewide, an exit poll of 3,350 voters by the Florida News Network found
opposition among 70 percent of the non-Latin whites, 65 percent of the
non-Latin blacks and 56 percent of the Hispanics.
KEYWORDS: ELECTION GAMBLING RESULT FLORIDA MD REACTION ANALYSIS
TAG: 8602070034
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