390-08 Bivariate Ecological Regression Analysis of Ethnic Voting 1998
THE MIAMI BEACH LANDMARK ELECTIONS
OF NOVEMBER 1997:
A BIVARIATE ECOLOGICAL REGRESSION ANALYSIS
OF ETHNIC VOTING
by
Abraham D. Lavender, Ph.D.
and
Chris Girard, Ph.D.
Department of Sociology and Anthropology
Florida International University
Miami, Florida 33199
305-348-2247
March 1998
THE MIAMI BEACH LANDMARK ELECTIONS
OF NOVEMBER 1997:
A BIVARIATE ECOLOGICAL REGRESSION ANALYSIS
OF ETHNIC VOTING
by
Abraham D. Lavender, Ph.D.
and
Chris Girard, ph.D.
Background
On November 4, 1997, Miami Beach, Florida, had an election for
mayor and four commissioners. Commissioner Nancy Liebman was
reelected with a majority of 50.2% (5,616 votes to her two
opponents' combined 5,576 votes) on November 4. In the race for
mayor and the other three commissioners, no candidate received a
majority on November 4, so a runoff election was held on November
13, 1997. In the runoff election, Commissioner Neisen Kasdin, who
had served on the city commission since 1991, was elected mayor.
The three commissioners elected on November 13 were Jose Smith,
David Dermer, and Simon Cruz. All three were newcomers to the city
commission, none having previously served on the commission.
The election on November 13, 1997. was a landmark election for
Miami Beach because, for the first time in the city's history, a
Cuban-born candidate was elected to the commission. Not only was
the previous barrier broken, but it was doubly broken as two Cuban-
born candidates, Simon Cruz and Jose Smith, were elected. Two other
commissioners, Martin Shapiro and Susan Gottlieb, did not face
election in 1997 because their terms continue until 1999, so the
seven-person commission (including the mayor) had two Hispanic
members out of seven.
As recently as November 1995, strong ethnic voting patterns
had characterized elections in Miami Beach. For example, in 1995,
in one race with a non-Hispanic candidate (Susan Gottlieb) and a
Hispanic candidate (Ada Llerandi), the non-Hispanic candidate
received 90.8% of the non-Hispanic vote and only 2.6% of the
Hispanic vote while the Hispanic candidate received 97.4% of the
Hispanic vote and only 9.2% of the non-Hispanic vote. In another
race with a non-Hispanic candidate (Marty Shapiro) and a Hispanic
candidate (Matti Herrera Bower), the non-Hispanic candidate
received 74.2% of the non-Hispanic vote and 22.8% of the non-
Hispanic vote while the Hispanic candidate received 77.2% of the
Hispanic vote and 25.8% of the non-Hispanic vote. The 1995 vote was
not unique. In the one race in 1993, three non-Hispanic candidates
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(Nancy Liebman. Eva Kaplan, and Frederick R. Von Langen) received
80.5% of the non-Hispanic vote and only 13.2% of the Hispanic vote,
while the one Hispanic candidate (Miguel Karpel) received 86.8% of
the Hispanic vote and 19.5% of the non-Hispanic vote (Lavender and
Girard. January 1996) .
Even when elections have not been between non-Hispanic and
Hispanic candidates, and elections have involved issues instead of
candidates, there frequently have been strong differences between
non-Hispanic and Hispanic voting patterns in Miami Beach and in
Miami-Dade County in general (e.g.. Lavender, 1994; Filkins, 1993).
In June 1997, for example. Miami Beach voters decided by a vote of
57.4% to 42.6% to limit the height of waterfront highrises. Non-
Hispanic voters voted for the building limitation by 82.7% to 17.3%
while Hispanic voters against the limitations by 68.3% to 31.7%
(Lavender and Girard. September 1997). In the November 1995
election for mayor in Miami Beach, when both candidates were non-
Hispanic, the non-Hispanic vote was divided overwhelmingly with
83.6% for the incumbent mayor (Seymour Gelber) and 16.4% for the
challenger (Andrew Delaplaine) while the Hispanic vote was almost
evenly divided with 54.7% for the incumbent and 45.3% for the
challenger. Also in the November 1995 election in Miami Beach there
was an issue as to whether or not a park in the South Beach area
should be renamed for Mrs. Marjory Stoneman Douglas. Non-Hispanic
voters voted 62.5% to name the park after Mrs. Douglas and 37.5%
against the name change, but Hispanic voters voted only 30.7% for
the name change and 69.3% against the name change (Lavender and
Girard, January 1996) .
The 1997 Elections
Statistical analyzes of the ethnic voting patterns for Miami
Beach in November 1997 are shown on the following pages. The
results are shown for November 4 and for November 13. showing how
the ethnic patterns varied from the first election to the runoff.
Regression analyzes show graphically the relationships between
candidates and ethnic voting.
I note below how the non-Hispanic votes and Hispanic votes
changed from the first election to the runoff election. It must be
noted, however, that these were not always the same voters. As
noted in an earlier publication, of the 12,765 voters analyzed from
November 4, 3,397 (26.6%) did not vote on November 13. In other
words. one in four of the people who voted on November 4 did not
vote nine days later in the runoff. On the other hand, of the
11,259 voters analyzed from November 13, 1,891 (16.8%) had not
voted on November 4. In other words, one in six of the people who
voted in the runoff on November 13 had not voted nine days earlier
(Lavender, February 1998) .
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ELECTION FOR MAYOR--NOVEMBER 4, 1997
Total Non- His.- Total
Number Hisp. panic %
Votes % % Votes
Neisen Kasdin 5,033 53.7 24.7 40.8
David T. pearlson 4,464 29.1 45.2 36.2
Other four candidates 2,846 17.2 30.1 23.0
Leslie Martinez Botet 471 0.8 7.5 3.8
Mike Burke 694 5.7 5.5 5.6
Robert P. Kunst 277 1.7 2.9 2.2
Robert Skidell 1,404 9.0 14.2 11.4
12,343 100.0 100.0 100.0
RUNOFF ELECTION FOR MAYOR--NOVEMBER 13, 1997
Neisen Kasdin
5,937
60.9
48.1
55.2
David T. pearlson
4,811
39.1
51.9
44.8
10,748
100.0
100.0
100.0
Of the Non-Hispanic votes cast for the other four candidates
(Botet, Burke, Kunst, and Skidell) in the first election, 41.5% of
these votes were cast for Kasdin and 58.5% for pearlson in the run-
off election.
Of the Hispanic votes cast for the other four candidates in the
first election, 77.6% of these votes were cast for Kasdin and 22.4%
for Pearlson in the run-off election. .
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ELECTION FOR COMMISSIONER GROUP I--NOVEMBER 4, 1997
Total Non- His.- Total
Number Hisp. panic %
Votes % % Votes
Jose Smith 3,724 34.2 30.7 32.7
Spencer Friedman Eig 2,910 42.1 5.1 25.6
Other four candidates 2,846 23.7 64.1 41.7
Frank G. Del Toro 1,415 7.0 19.1 12.4
Joe Fontana 1,859 10.1 24.1 16.3
Sid Gersh 565 4.4 5.7 5.0
Bernice Martinez 910 2.2 15.2 8.0
11,383 100.0 100.0 100.0
RUNOFF ELECTION FOR COMMISSIONER GROUP I--NOVEMBER 13, 1997
Jose Smith
6,012
48.0
76.6
61.2
Spencer Friedman Eig
3,808
52.0
23.4
38.8
9,820
100.0
100.0
100.0
Of the Non-Hispanic votes cast for the other four candidates (Del
Toro, Fontana, Gersh. and Martinez) in the first election, 58.0% of
these votes were cast for Smith and 42.0% for Eig in the run-off
election.
Of the Hispanic votes cast for the other four candidates in the
first election, 71.6% of these votes were cast for Smith and 28.4%
for Eig in the run-off election. .
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ELECTION FOR COMMISSIONER GROUP II--NOVEMBER 4. 1997
Total Non- His.- Total
Number Hisp. panic %
Votes % % Votes
David Dermer 5,576 66.1 28.2 49.5
Ada Llerandi 2,846 1.6 55.3 25.3
By Eisenberg 2,840 32.3 16.5 25.2
11,262
100.0
100.0
100.0
RUNOFF ELECTION FOR COMMISSIONER GROUP II--NOVEMBER 13, 1997
David Dermer
6,191
89.0
35.0
64.7
Ada Llerandi
3,376
11. 0
65.0
35.3
9,567
100.0
100.0
100.0
Of the Non-Hispanic votes cast for By Eisenberg in the first
election, 71.0% of these votes were cast for Dermer and 29.0% for
Llerandi in the run-off election.
Of the Hispanic votes cast for By Eisenberg in the first election,
41.6% of these votes were cast for Dermer and 58.4% for Llerandi in
the run-off election.
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ELECTION FOR COMMISSIONER GROUP III--NOVEMBER 4, 1997
Total Non- His.- Total
Number Hisp. panic %
Votes % % Votes
Nancy Liebman 5,616 49.3 51.5 50.2
Jose Morel 1,808 2.6 33.3 16.1
Warren Stamm 3,768 48.1 15.2 33.7
11,192
100.0
100.0
100.0
NO RUN-OFF ELECTION WAS NECESSARY BECAUSE NANCY LIEBMAN RECEIVED A
MAJORITY OF VOTES IN THE FIRST ELECTION.
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ELECTION FOR COMMISSIONER GROUP IV--NOVEMBER 4, 1997
Total Non- His.- Total
Number Hisp. panic %
Votes % % Votes
Simon Cruz 4,654 26.4 59.8 41.2
Matti Herrera Bower 4,272 47.6 25.3 37.8
Other two candidates 2,372 26.0 14.9 21.0
Larry Napp 1,809 22.2 8.4 16.0
Ray Reilly 563 3.8 6.5 5.0
11,298
100.0
100.0
100.0
RUNOFF ELECTION FOR COMMISSIONER GROUP IV--NOVEMBER 13, 1997
Simon Cruz
5,407
52.1
54.5
53.0
Matti Herrera Bower
4.790
47.9
45.5
47.0
10,197
100.0
100.0
100.0
Of the Non-Hispanic votes cast for the other two candidates (Napp
and Reilly) in the first election, 98.6% of these votes were cast
for Cruz and 1.4% for Bower in the run-off election.
Of the Hispanic votes cast for the other two candidates in the
first election, basically all were cast for Bower in the run-off
election. However. Cruz still won the majority of the Hispanic
votes.
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REFERENCES
Filkins, Dexter. "Gas-Tax Played Out Along Ethnic Lines." The Miami
Herald, October 23, 1993, p. 1A. Reprinted in Abraham D. Lavender
and Adele S. Newson, editors, Black Communities in Transition:
Voices From South Florida, University Press of America, 1996.
Lavender, Abraham D. "The FlU Scholarship Vote of October 1994: An
Analysis of Race, Ethnicity, Social Characteristics, and Region of
Residence in Dade County." Florida International University, 1994.
Reprinted in condensed form in Abraham D. Lavender and Adele S.
Newson, editors, Black Communities in Transition: Voices From South
Florida, University Press of America, 1996.
Lavender, Abraham D. "Fervent Voters, Half-Time Voters, and Non-
Voters: A Comparison of the Primary and Runoff Elections of
Novmeber 1997 in Miami Beach." Florida International University,
February 1998.
Lavender, Abraham D., and Chris Girard. "The June 1997 Vote on
Waterfront Height Limitations on Miami Beach: A Bivariate
Ecological Regaression Analysis of Ethnic Voting." Florida
International University, September 1997.
Lavender, Abraham D., and Chris Girard. "The Miami Beach Mayor and
Commissioners Election of November 1995: An Ethnic Analyis."
Florida International University, January 1996.
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