390-12 Comparison of Primary and Runoff Elections Nov 1997
FERVENT VOTERS, HALF-TIME VOTERS,
AND NON-VOTERS: A COMPARISON OF THE PRIMARY
AND RUNOFF ELECTIONS OF
NOVEMBER 1997 IN MIAMI BEACH
by
Abraham D. Lavender, Ph.D.
Department of Sociology and Anthropology
Florida International University
February 1998
FERVENT VOTERS, HALF-TIME VOTERS, AND NON-VOTERS:
A COMPARISON OF THE PRIMARY AND RUNOFF ELECTIONS OF
NOVEMBER 1997 IN MIAMI BEACH
by
Abraham D. Lavender, Ph.D.
February 1998
The elections in November 1997 were different in several ways
from previous elections in Miami Beach:
(1) For the first time, in the race for one commission seat
there were two Hispanic candidates (Simon Cruz and Matti Herrera
Bower) who were generally considered to be the two strongest
candidates among the four candidates (Kissell, 1997). Hence, it was
generally assumed that a Hispanic would be elected for the first
time.
(2) In the race for another commission seat, it was generally
assumed that a Hispanic candidate (Jose Smith) in that race would
be one of the strongest candidates. Hence, it was believed that two
Hispanic candidates had serious chances of being elected for the
first time.
(3) In the June 1997 vote on highrises, analyzes indicated
that 40.6% of the registered voters were Hispanic, but that,
because of a higher turnout, Hispanic voters cast 47.0% of the
total ballots. (Lavender and Girard, September 1997). Hence, in
view of the high expectations on the part of the Hispanic community
that the city commission could finally have Hispanic
representation, some experts expected that there would be an even
higher than usual Hispanic turnout--perhaps comprising one-half or
more of all voters for the first time. On the other hand, some
experts believed that the Hispanic vote would not necessarily be
higher than usual because of the expectation that there almost
definitely would finally be Hispanic representation on the city
commission because of the Cruz-Bower race.
This brief article analyzes the voter turnout rates for the
June 3, November 4, and November 13, 1997, votes in order to
compare ethnic groups. This writer has his own beliefs explaining
the differences in turnout rates, but speculations for the
differences are left to the reader.
As shown in Table 1, on the line marked "Total Hispanic," all
Hispanic voters together accounted, as noted above, for 47.0% of
all votes cast on the June 3, 1997, referendum on high rises.
Jewish voters accounted for 30.1% of the votes cast, and "Other"
voters (non-Hispanic and non-Jewish) accounted for 23.4% of all
votes cast. The total shown here is 100.5% because a few voters are
1
both Jewish and Hispanic.
On November 4, Hispanic voters accounted for 43.2% of all
votes cast, lower than the percentage accounted tor on June 3.
However, Jewish voters accounted for 38.1% of all votes cast on
November 4, much higher than the percentage found on June 3.
"Other" voters accounted for a smaller share (19.2%) of the total
votes on November 4 than they had on June 3.
On the runoff election on November 13, Hispanic voters
accounted for a slightly higher percent (44.1) of all votes than
they had on November 4, Jewish voters accounted for a sIghtly lower
percentage (37.2), and "Other" voters accounted for the same
percentage (19.2).
The different percentages in the above paragraph are accounted
for by two factors: the number of registered voters from each
ethnic group, and the turnout percentage for each group. The
turnout rates are shown in Table 2. On June 3, the overall turnout
rate for all voters was 28.1l. However, Hispanic voters turned out
at a rate of 32.5%. Jewish voters had a turnout rate of 27.1%, and
"Other" voters had a turnout rate of 22.3%.
On November 4, the overall turnout rate was 33.7%, noticeably
higher than the 28.1% on June 3. The Hispanic turnout went up some
from 32.5% to 35.4%, and the "Other" turnout went down a little
from 22.3% to 21.6%. However, the Jewish turnout on November 4 was
40.7%, much higher than it had been on June 3 and much higher than
the turnout rates for Hispanics or "Others."
On November 13, the overall turnout rate was 29.4%, down from
the 33.7% on November 4. The Jewish turnout rate went down the
most, from 40.7% to 35.3%, but the Jewish turnout was still the
highest of the three ethnic groups. The Hispanic turnout went down
from 35.4% to 32.0%, remaining a little lower than the Jewish
turnout. As shown, the Hispanic turnout rate varied tremendously
among different subgroups within the Hispanic community. * The
"Other" turnout rate went down the least, from 21.6% on November 4
to 19.4% on November 13, but it remained much lower than either the
Jewish or the Hispanic turnout on both dates.
Using data from shortly after the elections in November, and
recognizing that 1.6% of the November 4 voters and 0.8% of the
November 13 voters were los~ from the analysis because of a time-
delay in being able to obtain the voting data, it is noted that a
noticeable group of people voted on one date but not on the other.
Of the 12,765 voters analyzed from November 4, 3,397 (26.6%) did
not vote on November 13. In other words, one in four of the people
who voted on November 4 did not vote nine days later in the runoff.
On the other hand, of the 11,259 voters analyzed from November 13,
1,891 (16.8%) had not voted on November 4. In other words, one in
six of the people who voted in the runoff on November 13 had not
voted nine days earlier.
Of the registered voters in the city, 61.9% did not vote in
either of the November elections; 8.8% voted on November 4 only,
4.9% voted on November 13 only, and 24.3% voted on both dates.
Looking only at the voters who voted at least once, 23.2% voted
only on November 4, 12.9% voted only on November 13, and 63.9%
2
voted on both dates.
*Before 1995 voters were classified according to place of birth,
with voters born in Spanish-speaking countries classified as
Hispanic ("Latin"). Distinctive Hispanic names are used to estimate
the number of voters (who registered before 1995) who were born in
the United States (and other non-Spanish-speaking countries) but
who were Hispanic. Beginning in 1995, birthplace was not obtained
from newly-registered voters, but voters were asked to self-
identify themselves according to ethnici ty . Distinctive Jewish
names were used to estimate the number of Jewish voters. "Others"
are voters who were not Jewish or Hispanic.
References
Kissell, Ted B. "The Body Politic Hits the Beach." New Times,
August 14-20, 1997, p. 7.
Lavender, Abraham D., and Chris Girard. "The June 1997 Vote on
Waterfront Height Limitations on Miami Beach: A Bivariate
Ecological Regaression Analysis of Ethnic Voting." Florida
International University, September 1997.
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