Loading...
20160829 Convention Center Survey Reports MIAMI BEACH CONVENTION CENTER HOTEL VOTER SURVEY RESULTS 2016 The Miami Beach Convention Center Survey report was prepared by the Florida International University Metropolitan Center on behalf of the City of Miami Beach and the Miami Beach Mayor’s Ad Hoc Blue Ribbon Steering Committee on the Convention Center Hotel. The FIU Metropolitan Center is an applied research and training institute in the Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs. It provides policy solutions to public, private and non-profit organizations in South Florida. Established in 1997, the Metropolitan Center has an impressive track record of providing quality services to communities through various social science research studies including economic development plans, housing needs assessments, community indicator studies, economic impact analyses, surveys and focus groups. In addition, the Metropolitan Center has organized workshops, conferences and retreats as well as public opinion forums to address specific urban issues. Principal Investigators: Maria Ilcheva, Ph.D., Assistant Scholar/Senior Research Associate Dario Moreno, Ph.D., Professor, FIU Department of Politics and International Relations The Ad Hoc Blue Ribbon Steering Committee on the Convention Center Hotel was established in April 2016 for the purpose of examining the issue of the Convention Center hotel and exploring opportunities for reintroducing the hotel for voter approval. The Committee is comprised of: Commissioner Ricky Arriola, Chair Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez, Vice Chair Jorge Exposito, Member Paul Freedman, Member Saul Gross, Member Debra Leibowitz, Member Leslie Tobin, Member TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY OF FINDINGS ................................................................................................................. 1 METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................................. 3 OVERALL SUPPORT .......................................................................................................................... 4 FACTORS AFFECTING VOTER SUPPORT .......................................................................................... 7 RESULTS BY AREA .......................................................................................................................... 12 RESULTS BY AGE ............................................................................................................................ 15 RESULTS BY VOTER QUALITY......................................................................................................... 20 OPPORTUNITIES ............................................................................................................................ 25 APPENDIX A: REASONS TO OPPOSE THE HOTEL ........................................................................... 26 APPENDIX B: REASONS TO SUPPORT THE HOTEL ......................................................................... 28 APPENDIX C: SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE ........................................................................................ 31 1 Summary of Findings On March 15, 2016, the City of Miami Beach held a referendum on the construction of a Convention Center hotel. The hotel ballot measure obtained only 54% approval from voters and failed to reach the super-majority vote of 60% required to begin construction of the hotel. The Miami Beach Convention Center is undergoing a $600 million renovation and expansion. Convention Center and other tourism officials recommended that in order for the Center to be financially successful, it needed a “headquarter hotel” with 800 to 1,200 rooms that is adjacent to the Center. The plans were for the City to lease the land to a private developer who will privately finance the hotel construction and provide lease payments to the City. No taxpayer funds would be used in the development. According to media reports and the hotel opposition, the hotel failed to obtain the necessary voter approval due to concerns over its height, size, location and traffic impact. To test these propositions, the Metropolitan Center conducted a survey with a representative sample of Miami Beach voters. The 600 completed survey responses were collected from August 2nd through 14th, 2016. This report presents the analysis of the results and offers insight into potential changes the City of Miami Beach may make to address voter concerns. Below is a summary of the results which are discussed in more detail in the report. Miami Beach residents are deeply divided about building a Convention Center hotel. 46% of the voters support the original project, 46% oppose it and 8% are unsure or undecided. Opposition to the project has grown as one out of five hotel supporters in the March referendum would now oppose the hotel if it was the same as proposed before. The proposed hotel’s impact on traffic is clearly the most important concern for Miami Beach residents. The options for a new location – at the Jackie Gleason site and in the parking lot across the Convention Center - have significant opposition. A comprehensive plan for traffic mitigation alone increases support for the hotel more than the options of downsizing the hotel or changing location. 41% of hotel opponents would be more likely to support the hotel if the hotel development includes a comprehensive plan to mitigate traffic in the area of the hotel. 34% of opponents would be more likely to support the hotel if height was reduced. 33% of opponents would be more likely to support the hotel if the hotel design is the product of a public process after the lease is approved. Residents’ concerns could be alleviated by a properly designed project that mitigates the hotel’s impact on traffic and parking. The hotel development needs to include: A citywide comprehensive plan process after the signing of lease; Public participation in the planning process; Broad stakeholder involvement of the public as well as experts (architects, planners, traffic and parking engineers); and 2 Miami Beach Voter Survey, Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel Increased awareness about the need for the hotel to support the new Convention Center and its broader impact on revenues, job creation and economic development. 3 Methodology The survey was administered for two weeks from August 2 through August 14, 2016. A total of 600 complete responses were collected, with a representative distribution of voters in terms of geographic location, as well as other demographic characteristics. Race and Ethnicity • 48% White • 44% Hispanic • 2% Black • 6% Other Gender • 47% Male • 53% Female Language • 74% English • 26% Spanish Party Affiliation • 45% Democrat • 31% Republican • 22% No Party Affiliation • 2% Independent Age • 18-34: 9% • 35-64: 50% • 65+: 41% Area • 25% North Beach • 34% Middle Beach • 41% South Beach The survey was conducted with registered voters, based on voter registration lists from the Florida Department of Elections. However, since not all voters will participate in an election, in order to gauge voter preferences and estimate their stance on voting issues in a future election, survey research groups voters in different categories. The Miami Beach respondent database categorized voters on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being assigned to a voter who voted once in past elections, and 5 for a voter who voted five out of five times. Presidential elections typically have a higher turnout rate than local elections. The likelihood of voter participation depending on the type of election in which a voting item appears may affect the chance of that item passing. Voting Record • 19% Voted once • 20% voted twice • 23% voted 3x • 18% voted 4x • 20% voted 5x MARCH 2016 REFERENDUM STATISTICS Total Registered Voters: 40,889 North Beach – 11,645 Mid Beach – 14,726 South Beach – 14,518 Demographics 47% White, 42% Hispanic Age: 18-35 – 22%; 36-65 – 52%; Over 65 - 26% Party: 41% Dem, 23% Rep, 34% No Party, 2% Ind Voter turnout: 39% North Beach – 35% Mid Beach – 43% South Beach – 37% Source: Miami-Dade County Elections Department. 4 Miami Beach Voter Survey, Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel Overall Support Only 45% of those surveyed supported the hotel in the March referendum, while 30% voted against it and 25% did not vote. The respondents are evenly split with regards to the hotel, with 46% indicating they would support it, 46% against it and 8% are unsure. Support for the hotel has declined since March. One of the first questions asked in the survey was “Would you support the hotel if it were the same as proposed in March?” Responses to that question showed that 23% of those who supported the hotel in March are against it now.  The responses to the final survey question - ”What is the primary reason you would vote to support the hotel?” - showed that only 17% of those who voted in favor of the hotel would not support it now. This change (from 23% down to 17%) following questions on various potential changes to the hotel design and location may indicate that some voters may be persuaded to vote in favor.  In contrast, 54% of those who voted against the hotel in March confirmed they would vote against it again, regardless of any changes. There is opportunity to grow support among voters who did not participate in the March referendum as 46% of those who did not vote would support the hotel if it was the same as proposed before, and 18% are unsure. Did you vote in the March 15 referendum regarding the development of a Convention Center hotel? (Count/Percentage) I voted and supported I voted and did not support I did not vote Would you support the hotel if it were the same as proposed in March? Yes 197 11 70 73.5% 6.1% 46.4% No 62 160 53 23.1% 88.4% 35.1% Maybe/Unsure 9 10 28 3.4% 5.5% 18.5% Total 268 181 151 100% 100% 100% Voter quality: There are no significant difference in support for the hotel depending on the quality of the voters. 47% of high quality voters (those who voted 4 or 5 times in the last 5 elections) and 46% of those who voted 3 or fewer times would support the hotel. Age: Support for the hotel is slightly stronger among voters aged 65 years and over (52%) than working age voters – 42%. Ethnicity/Race: Hispanic voters are more likely to support the hotel (59%) than White, non- Hispanics (35%). 5 Party affiliation: The hotel is not a partisan issue as similar percentages of Republican (50%) and Democrat voters (47%) support it. The weakest support for the hotel is among those with no party affiliation with only 39% in favor and 51% against it. Language: Support for the hotel is stronger among Spanish-speaking voters (63%) than English- speaking voters (41%). Gender: Male voters (53%) are more likely to support the hotel than female voters (41%). Area: South Beach residents are more likely to support the hotel (50.8%) than Middle Beach (42.4%) or North Beach (44.2%). While voters are apprehensive over the size, height and location of the project, it is the hotel’s impact on traffic that concern most. Almost half of those who voted against the hotel (48.6%) pointed to the traffic congestion the hotel will create. Another 17.1% indicated the citywide traffic was their primary reason for opposing the hotel. It should be noted that the respondents self-reported these concerns, without a prompt from the interviewer. The percentages in the chart below add up to more than 100 because some respondents provided more than one answer. Additionally, 55 voters, or approximately 30% of those who voted against the hotel indicated other reasons. These reasons are listed in Appendix A. 7.2% 7.7% 12.7% 16.6% 17.1% 48.6% The location of the hotel The design of the development The parking shortage it may produce The height of the proposed development Citywide traffic The traffic congestion it will create What was your primary concern when you voted against the hotel development? 6 Miami Beach Voter Survey, Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel At the end of the survey, voters were asked to provide reasons for supporting the hotel. Almost a third reported they would not support the hotel under any circumstance. The hotel’s potential to bring quality conventions and to create jobs were most frequently mentioned, by approximately 21% of voters. The percentages in the chart below add up to more than 100 because some respondents provided more than one answer. Another 17% indicated other reasons for supporting the hotel or that they would support it provided that certain changes were made. These responses are listed verbatim in Appendix B. 11.2% 17.2% 17.3% 20.7% 21.3% 31.5% IT WILL IMPROVE THE AREA IT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL REVENUES TO THE CITY OTHER IT WILL CREATE NEW JOBS IT WILL HELP BRING QUALITY CONVENTIONS I WOULD NOT VOTE IN FAVOR OF THE HOTEL PRIMARY REASON TO SUPPORT 7 Factors Affecting Voter Support The survey asked seven (7) specific questions about potential changes to the hotel design, location and overall planning progress to gauge the likelihood of each of them to increase support for the hotel. The overall results indicate the development of a comprehensive traffic mitigation plan to be the most effective is increasing support. Almost two-thirds (64%) would be more likely to support the hotel if such a plan existed. Some of the potential changes to the hotel are less popular and increase the likelihood of opposition for the hotel. Almost a third of respondents indicated that they would be less likely to support the hotel if the development incorporated the Jackie Gleason Theater. The opposition to moving the hotel location to the parking lot across from the Convention Center was even stronger. Location Location in parking lot across from Convention Center is a non-starter as it will significantly increase opposition to the hotel project The Gleason theater option has some support (44%) but by itself not enough to assure passage of hotel project. Traffic Two-thirds of the respondents cited Traffic as their principle concern with the new convention hotel. Residents are mostly concerned with the project’s impact on traffic in the area immediately around the proposed site (48.6%) but there was considerable concern on its impact on citywide traffic patterns (17.1%). Almost two-thirds of the respondents (64%) would be more likely to support the hotel development if it includes a comprehensive plan to mitigate traffic in the area of the hotel. Design Residents also have concerns regarding the design of the building. Almost half support reducing the building footprint. 49.5% more likely to support if height is reduced. 38% more likely to support if rooms are reduced. Reducing the height or number of rooms alone would not be sufficient to increase support past the 60% required voter approval. Recruiting a world-class architect to design the hotel would make 49% more likely to support. 8 Miami Beach Voter Survey, Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel *A small percentage of respondents indicated for some of these options that they do not believe these changes will happen. The largest percentage of “Do not believe” responses were with regards to making the hotel design part of a public process (3.5%) and including a traffic mitigation plan as part of the hotel development (4.2%) 27.0% 40.2% 22.5% 29.0% 30.0% 20.7% 15.0% 40.3% 21.8% 31.7% 20.3% 20.5% 25.0% 16.8% 32.7% 38.0% 43.5% 49.0% 49.5% 50.8% 64.0% the hotel was developed on the parking lot across the street from the Convention Center that is currently planned to be a public park, instead of the parking lot behind the Fillmore. the hotel size was reduced from 800 rooms to approximately 600 rooms the hotel developer rebuilt and incorporated a new Fillmore Miami Beach at Jackie Gleason Theater into the hotel. a world-class architect was recruited to design the hotel the hotel height was reduced from 288 feet to a maximum of 185 feet, which is approximately the height of the Clock Tower building at Lincoln Road and Washington Avenue the hotel design was the product of a public process after the lease is approved the hotel development includes a comprehensive plan to mitigate traffic in the area of the hotel Would you be more or less likely to support the hotel if … No difference Less Likely More Likely 9 The table below shows the potential factors that may affect voters and the respective percentage of voters who indicated they would be more likely to support the hotel. The comprehensive traffic mitigation plan increases the likelihood that previous hotel opponents may change their vote as approximately 41% indicated such a plan would make them more likely to support the hotel. Reducing the hotel height and making the hotel design part of a public process might influence about a third of opponents. PERCENTAGE OF VOTERS IN TOP FIVE FACTORS THAT WOULD MAKE THEM MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT HOTEL Ho w d i d y o u v o t e a t t h e M a r c h r e f e r e n d u m ? I voted and supported Hotel development includes a comprehensive plan to mitigate traffic in the area of the hotel (76.9%) World-class architect (63.4%) Public process (60.8%) Reduced hotel height (59.3%) Hotel developer rebuild and incorporate a new Fillmore Miami Beach at Jackie Gleason Theater (53.7%) I voted and did not support Hotel development includes a comprehensive plan to mitigate traffic (40.9%) Reduced hotel height (34.3%) Public process (32.6%) Reduced number of rooms (27.6%) World-class architect (25.4%) I did not vote Hotel development includes a comprehensive plan to mitigate traffic (68.9%) Public process (55.0%) Hotel developer rebuild and incorporate a new Fillmore Miami Beach at Jackie Gleason Theater (52.3%) World class architect (51.7%) Reduced hotel height (50.3%) 10 Miami Beach Voter Survey, Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel The table below shows the distribution of responses for the voters who opposed the hotel in the March referendum. These responses indicate that a combination of changes to the planning process for the hotel development may increase support Effect of Changes on Hotel OPPONENTS More likely Less Likely No Difference Do not believe Hotel development includes a comprehensive plan to mitigate traffic in the area of the hotel 40.9% 32.0% 21.5% 5.6% Hotel height was reduced 34.3% 31.5% 19.2% 15.0% Public process 32.6% 36.5% 26.0% 4.9% Number of rooms reduced to 600 27.6% 31.5% 40.9% 0.0% World-class architect 25.4% 31.5% 41.4% 1.7% Hotel developer rebuild and incorporate a new Fillmore Miami Beach at Jackie Gleason Theater 21.0% 46.4% 29.3% 3.3% Develop on parking lot across from Convention Center 17.7% 51.9% 30.4% 0.0% Some of the changes intended to increase support for the hotel may actually reduce support among those who previously approved it. The table below shows the distribution of responses for the voters who supported the hotel in the March referendum. Developing the hotel in the parking lot across from the Convention Center and incorporating the Gleason Theatre in the new development are the most unpopular among hotel supporters. Effect of Changes on Hotel SUPPORTERS More likely Less Likely No Difference Do not believe Develop on parking lot across from Convention Center 41.4% 36.0% 22.4% 0.2% Hotel developer rebuild and incorporate a new Fillmore Miami Beach at Jackie Gleason Theater 53.7% 24.3% 19.8% 2.2% Public process 60.8% 18.7% 17.5% 3.0% Number of rooms reduced to 600 26.9% 15.3% 38.8% 19.0% Hotel height was reduced 59.3% 13.8% 26.9% 0.0% World-class architect 63.4% 12.7% 22.0% 1.9% Hotel development includes a comprehensive plan to mitigate traffic in the area of the hotel 76.9% 7.8% 11.9% 3.4% 11 The table below shows the distribution of responses for the voters who did not participate in the March referendum. Only 47% of these voters indicated they would support the hotel if it were the same as proposed in March, while another 19% were undecided. Developing the hotel in the parking lot across from the Convention Center and incorporating the Gleason Theatre in the new development are the most unpopular among those who did not participate in the March referendum. Effect of Changes on Voters Who Did Not Vote in March More likely Less Likely No Difference Do not believe Hotel development includes a comprehensive plan to mitigate traffic in the area of the hotel. 68.9% 14.6% 12.6% 3.9% Public process 55.0% 22.5% 19.9% 2.6% Hotel developer rebuild and incorporate a new Fillmore Miami Beach at Jackie Gleason Theater 52.3% 27.2% 19.2% 1.3% World-class architect 51.7% 20.5% 26.5% 1.3% Hotel height was reduced 50.3% 19.2% 30.5% 0.0% Number of rooms reduced 36.4% 21.9% 41.7% 0.0% Develop on parking lot across from Convention Center 35.1% 33.8% 31.1% 0.0% 12 Miami Beach Voter Survey, Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel Results by Area The survey results were analyzed by the respondents’ areas of residence by using information on their precinct. In comparison to the March referendum voters, the response distribution by area has a small underrepresentation for Middle Beach and overrepresentation for South Beach voters. The March referendum percentages by area were 26% for North Beach, 40% for Middle Beach and 34% for South Beach. Since the analysis below shows that South Beach residents are more likely to support the hotel, the results may overestimate overall support for the hotel. Miami Beach Area Count Percent North Beach 147 24.5% Mid Beach 205 34.2% South Beach 248 41.3% Total 600 100.0 South Beach residents are more likely to support the hotel (50.8%) than Middle Beach (42.4%) or North Beach (44.2%). Traffic was the primary concern for those who rejected the hotel. Citywide traffic is a bigger concern for North and Middle Beach residents. 7% 5% 14% 9% 25% 34% 52% 10% 12% 16% 21% 19% 27% 52% 4% 6% 9% 17% 10% 31% 43% The location of the hotel The design of the development The parking shortage it may produce The height of the proposed development Citywide traffic Other The traffic congestion it will create REASONS FOR OPPOSITION North Mid South 13 The traffic mitigation plan is most impactful in building support among Middle and South Beach residents; only 53.1% of North Beach residents would be more likely to support the hotel if there was a traffic plan. A larger percentage of Middle and South Beach voters are also more likely to support the hotel if the design was part of a public process. Mid and South Beach residents would be more supportive of the hotel if it was designed by a world- class architect. PERCENTAGE OF VOTERS MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT HOTEL IF North Middle South Overall the hotel development includes a comprehensive plan to mitigate traffic in the area of the hotel 53.1% 66.8% 68.1% 64.0% the hotel design was the product of a public process after the lease is approved 44.9% 49.3% 55.6% 50.8% the hotel height was reduced from 288 feet to a maximum of 185 feet, which is approximately the height of the Clock Tower building at Lincoln Road and Washington Avenue 40.1% 49.8% 54.8% 49.5% a world-class architect was recruited to design the hotel 39.5% 50.7% 53.2% 49.0% the hotel developer rebuilt and incorporated a new Fillmore Miami Beach at Jackie Gleason Theater into the hotel 38.8% 41.5% 48.0% 43.5% the hotel size was reduced from 800 rooms to approximately 600 rooms 29.3% 36.6% 44.4% 38.0% the hotel was developed on the parking lot across the street from the Convention Center that is currently planned to be a public park, instead of the parking lot behind the Fillmore 28.6% 33.2% 34.7% 32.7% Almost half of South and Middle Beach residents who voted against the hotel would be more likely to support it if its development includes a traffic mitigation plan. 27.5% 21.7% 27.5% 41.5% 35.8% 49.1% 40.0% 42.0% 50.0% the hotel height was reduced from 288 feet to a maximum of 185 feet, which is approximately the height of the Clock Tower building at Lincoln Road and Washington Avenue the hotel design was the product of a public process after the lease is approved the hotel development includes a comprehensive plan to mitigate traffic in the area of the hotel Effect of Proposed Changes on Opposition North Mid South 14 Miami Beach Voter Survey, Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel Opposition to the hotel remained strong even after suggested concessions. 36% would not vote in favor in North Beach, 33% in Middle Beach and 29% in South Beach. Developing the hotel in the lot across the Convention Center has a strong opposition in all areas of Miami Beach but is stronger among North and Middle Beach residents. PERCENTAGE OF VOTERS LESS LIKELY TO SUPPORT HOTEL IF North Middle South Overall the hotel was developed on the parking lot across the street from the Convention Center that is currently planned to be a public park, instead of the parking lot behind the Fillmore 45.6% 44.9% 33.5% 40.3% the hotel developer rebuilt and incorporated a new Fillmore Miami Beach at Jackie Gleason Theater into the hotel 37.4% 34.6% 25.8% 31.7% a world-class architect was recruited to design the hotel 28.6% 26.8% 31.0% 29.0% the hotel design was the product of a public process after the lease is approved 29.3% 30.7% 17.7% 25.0% the hotel size was reduced from 800 rooms to approximately 600 rooms 28.6% 26.3% 14.1% 21.8% the hotel height was reduced from 288 feet to a max. of 185 feet, which is approximately the height of the Clock Tower building at Lincoln Road and Washington Avenue 25.9% 24.4% 14.1% 20.5% the hotel development includes a comprehensive plan to mitigate traffic in the area of the hotel 25.2% 17.1% 11.7% 16.8% North and South Beach residents mentioned job creation and attracting quality conventions as their reasons to support the hotel. Mid Beach residents most frequently mentioned the attraction of quality conventions and the additional revenues to the city. 7% 14% 14% 26% 16% 36% 13% 17% 21% 14% 24% 33% 11% 19% 16% 25% 21% 29% It will improve the area It will provide additional revenues to the city Other It will create new jobs It will help bring quality conventions I would not vote in favor of the hotel Reasons for Support North Mid South 15 Results by Age In order to assess differences across age groups, the analysis categorized survey responses into three age groups: young adults and professionals, aged 18-34; working age respondents, aged 35 to 64; and retirement or near retirement ages of 65 and over. Age Group Count Percent 18-34 52 8.7% 35-64 302 50.3% 65+ 246 41.0% Total 600 100.0 There are some significant differences in voter responses across age groups. Moreover, there have been changes in voter’s opinions from the March referendum. Older voters were more likely to support the hotel, with the highest support being in the 35-64 age group (47.7%). The largest opposition to the hotel was among young voters, in the 18-34 age group (32.7% in opposition) and voters in retirement age, 65 and over (32.9% opposed). Did you vote in the March 15 referendum regarding the development of a Convention Center hotel? Age 18-34 35-64 65+ Total I voted and supported 36.5% 47.7% 42.7% 44.7% I voted and did not support 32.7% 27.5% 32.9% 30.2% I did not vote 30.8% 24.8% 24.4% 25.2% However, at time of survey data collection, voters in the ages 65 and above were more likely to support the hotel. A small majority of voters in the 65+ age group would support the hotel if it were the same as proposed in March (52.0%). Half of young voters, in the 18-34 age group and a small majority of working age voters would oppose the hotel Would you support the hotel if it were the same as proposed in March? Age 18-34 35-64 65+ Total Yes 42.3% 42.4% 52.0% 46.3% No 50.0% 51.0% 38.6% 45.8% Maybe/Unsure 7.7% 6.6% 9.3% 7.8% 16 Miami Beach Voter Survey, Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel Traffic considerations were the biggest concern for voters who opposed the hotel across all age groups. A majority of voters in the 35-64 group (54.2%) pointed to the traffic congestion the development will create as a main concern. Traffic congestion was a concern for a smaller percentage of voters in retirement age (43.2%) and in the 18-34 age group (47.1%). 12% 12% 18% 24% 29% 47% 6% 6% 14% 17% 18% 54% 7% 9% 10% 16% 12% 43% The location of the hotel The design of the development The parking shortage it may produce The height of the proposed development Citywide traffic The traffic congestion it will create REASONS FOR OPPOSITION BY AGE 18-34 35-64 65+ 17 The development of a traffic mitigation plan is an important factor that can affect support for the hotel among the majority of voters across all age groups. The table below shows the percentage of voters in each age group who indicated that the respective change would make them more likely to support the hotel. Some of the significant differences across these changes include: The development of a comprehensive traffic mitigation plan has a more significant impact on hotel support among young voters as it increased likelihood of support for 75% of voters aged 18-34. Making the hotel design part of a public process had stronger support among young voters (aged 18-34), with 55.8% of them indicating they would be more likely to support the hotel in that context. In comparison, the public process increased support for only 45.5% of older voters (65+). A larger percentage of older voters (65+ age) feel more positive towards reducing the hotel size to 600 rooms (39.8%) than young voters (30.8%). PERCENTAGE OF VOTERS MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT HOTEL IF Age 18-34 35-64 65+ Total the hotel development includes a comprehensive plan to mitigate traffic in the area of the hotel 75.0% 67.5% 57.3% 64.0% the hotel design was the product of a public process after the lease is approved 55.8% 54.3% 45.5% 50.8% a world-class architect was recruited to design the hotel 48.1% 52.0% 45.5% 49.0% the hotel height was reduced from 288 feet to a maximum of 185 feet 48.1% 50.7% 48.4% 49.5% the hotel developer rebuilt and incorporated a new Fillmore Miami Beach at Jackie Gleason Theater into the hotel 40.4% 42.1% 45.9% 43.5% the hotel was developed on the parking lot across the street from the Convention Center that is currently planned to be a public park, instead of the parking lot behind the Fillmore. 32.7% 30.5% 35.4% 32.7% the hotel size was reduced from 800 rooms to approximately 600 rooms 30.8% 37.7% 39.8% 38.0% 18 Miami Beach Voter Survey, Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel There were also differences across ages in their opposition to proposed changes to the hotel. While changing the hotel location to the parking lot across the Convention Center decreased support across all age groups, it had a most significant negative impact on the 35-64 age group, of whom 44.4% indicated they would be less likely to support the hotel with that proposed change. Opposition to incorporating a new Fillmore Miami Beach at Jackie Gleason Theater into the hotel was also strongest in the 35-64 age group, with 36.1% indicating they would not support the hotel. PERCENTAGE OF VOTERS LESS LIKELY TO SUPPORT HOTEL IF Age 18-34 35-64 65+ Total the hotel was developed on the parking lot across the street from the Convention Center that is currently planned to be a public park, instead of the parking lot behind the Fillmore 34.6% 44.4% 36.6% 40.3% the hotel developer rebuilt and incorporated a new Fillmore Miami Beach at Jackie Gleason Theater into the hotel 30.8% 36.1% 26.4% 31.7% the hotel size was reduced from 800 rooms to approximately 600 rooms 19.2% 20.9% 23.6% 21.8% the hotel design was the product of a public process after the lease is approved 19.2% 25.2% 26.0% 25.0% a world-class architect was recruited to design the hotel 15.4% 19.5% 22.4% 20.3% the hotel height was reduced from 288 feet to a maximum of 185 feet 13.5% 20.2% 22.4% 20.5% the hotel development includes a comprehensive plan to mitigate traffic in the area of the hotel 9.6% 16.9% 18.3% 16.8% 19 When asked at the end of the survey about their reasons to support the hotel, approximately a third of respondents reiterated they would not support the hotel. Opposition remained strongest among younger voters with 38% of those aged 18-34 against it. The majority of responses grouped in the “Other” category were provided by older residents (65+) who indicated that it would improve the area, support the Convention Center hotel and will be beneficial for the city. 8% 12% 13% 21% 21% 38% 11% 20% 14% 25% 24% 32% 11% 14% 22% 17% 18% 28% It will improve the area It will provide additional revenues to the city Other It will create new jobs It will help bring quality conventions I would not vote in favor of the hotel REASONS FOR SUPPORT 18-34 35-64 65+ 20 Miami Beach Voter Survey, Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel Results by Voter Quality The Miami Beach respondent database categorized voters on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being assigned to a voter who voted once in past elections, and 5 for a voter who voted five out of five times. Understanding the voters who will actually show up at the ballot box is essential for assessing the likelihood of a measure to be approved. One way is to define the voters who have consistently voted in a selected set of elections. There is a high possibility that these voters could vote in the upcoming election. In the analysis below, voters who voted 4 or 5 times in the last five elections are considered quality voters or super voters and likely to vote again in following elections. The table below shows that a higher percentage of voters who voted 3 or more times in the last general elections participated in the March referendum. Overall, only 61.7% of those who voted once or twice out of five times participated in the referendum. In comparison, 82.3% of super voters (4 or 5 times out of 5) cast a vote in March. The Convention Center hotel received varying support depending on voter quality, with a smaller percentage of super voters (57%) voting in favor of the hotel at the March referendum than other voters (62%). Conversely, there was stronger opposition to the hotel among super voters. QUALITY: Total 1 2 3 4 5 Did you vote in the March 15 referendum r? I voted and supported Count 34 54 74 45 61 268 % 30.1% 44.3% 53.2% 42.1% 51.3% 44.7% I voted and did not support Count 30 27 44 40 40 181 % 26.5% 22.1% 31.7% 37.4% 33.6% 30.2% I did not vote Count 49 41 21 22 18 151 % 43.4% 33.6% 15.1% 20.6% 15.1% 25.2% Total Count 113 122 139 107 119 600 Support for the hotel has declined among all voters, regardless of their voting quality category. At the time of the survey, virtually the same percentage of super voters and less likely voters indicated they would support the hotel if it was the same as proposed in March, 46.9% and 46.0% respectively. 21 Among those who opposed the hotel, traffic considerations were the biggest concern. However, there were significant differences with regards to the other reasons for opposition. A significantly larger percentage of super voters (25%) opposed the hotel because of its height, than other voters (10%). A significantly smaller percentage of super voters (13%) opposed the hotel because of citywide traffic, than other voters (21%). 10% 11% 10% 25% 13% 28% 48% 5% 5% 15% 10% 21% 33% 50% The location of the hotel The design of the development The parking shortage it may produce The height of the proposed development Citywide traffic Other The traffic congestion it will create REASONS FOR OPPOSITION Other Voters Supervoters 22 Miami Beach Voter Survey, Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel The traffic mitigation plan, hotel height and the public input into the design process were the top three changes that would increase the hotel support among all voters. However, potential changes to the hotel have a smaller impact on super voters. Only 58.4% of super voters are more likely to support the hotel if it includes a comprehensive traffic mitigation plan, compared to 67.4% of other voters. Reducing the hotel height from 288 feet to a maximum of 185 feet had weaker support among super voters (46.5%) than other voters (51.3%). Making the hotel design part of a public process increased likelihood of support for 46% of super voters and 53.7% of other voters. PERCENTAGE OF VOTERS MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT HOTEL IF Super Voters Other Voters Overall the hotel development includes a comprehensive plan to mitigate traffic in the area of the hotel 58.4% 67.4% 64.0% the hotel height was reduced from 288 feet to a maximum of 185 feet 46.5% 51.3% 49.5% the hotel design was the product of a public process after the lease is approved 46.0% 53.7% 50.8% the hotel developer rebuilt and incorporated a new Fillmore Miami Beach at Jackie Gleason Theater into the hotel 45.6% 42.2% 43.5% a world-class architect was recruited to design the hotel 45.1% 51.3% 49.0% the hotel size was reduced from 800 rooms to approximately 600 rooms 35.0% 39.8% 38.0% the hotel was developed on the parking lot across the street from the Convention Center that is currently planned to be a public park, instead of the parking lot behind the Fillmore 31.9% 33.2% 32.7% 23 There were small variations with regards to the reasons for support. The hotel’s potential to bring quality conventions was a more frequently mentioned reason among super voters (23%) than other voters. Job creation was mentioned by a larger percentage of “Other” voters (24%) than super voters (18%). Opposition to the hotel was stronger among “Other” voters. A larger percentage of super voters indicated “Other” as a reason to support the hotel and some of these reasons included increasing real estate values, improving the area, positive impact on businesses and tourism, and the potential of the hotel’s revenues to lower taxes. 11% 15% 20% 18% 23% 29% 11% 18% 16% 24% 20% 33% It will improve the area It will provide additional revenues to the city Other It will create new jobs It will help bring quality conventions I would not vote in favor of the hotel REASONS FOR SUPPORT Supervoters Other Voters 24 Miami Beach Voter Survey, Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel Some of the potential changes have significant opposition from all voters. However, there are differences depending on voter quality. Developing the hotel on the parking lot across the Convention Center would make 37.2% of super voters and 42.2% of other voters less likely to support the hotel. Rebuilt and incorporating a new Fillmore Miami Beach at Jackie Gleason Theater into the hotel would make 26.5% of super voters and 34.8% of other voters less likely to support the hotel. PERCENTAGE OF VOTERS LESS LIKELY TO SUPPORT HOTEL IF Super Voters Other Voters Total the hotel was developed on the parking lot across the street from the Convention Center that is currently planned to be a public park, instead of the parking lot behind the Fillmore 37.2% 42.2% 40.3% the hotel developer rebuilt and incorporated a new Fillmore Miami Beach at Jackie Gleason Theater into the hotel 26.5% 34.8% 31.7% the hotel design was the product of a public process after the lease is approved 26.5% 24.1% 25.0% the hotel size was reduced from 800 rooms to approximately 600 rooms 23.9% 20.6% 21.8% the hotel height was reduced from 288 feet to a maximum of 185 feet 23.9% 18.4% 20.5% a world-class architect was recruited to design the hotel 23.0% 18.7% 20.3% the hotel development includes a comprehensive plan to mitigate traffic in the area of the hotel 19.0% 15.5% 16.8% 25 Opportunities The survey results show that voter support is insufficient to pass the required 60% approval as only 46% of voters overall and 47% of super voters would be in favor of the development. However, the City of Miami Beach can initiate changes to the hotel design and implement traffic mitigation measures that could increase support. Based on voter preferences for potential changes, as well as reasons that voters indicated may influence their support, the City will need to focus its efforts on alleviating voter concerns about traffic and engage them in the planning process. The City’s effort to develop a large hotel that can make the Convention Center financially successful by attracting large conventions rests on five pillars. Inclusive process to deal with design, location and traffic 1 Experts, politicians, and citizens 2 Traffic mitigation plan instead of another traffic study 3 Unique and iconic design maybe incorporating the Jackie Gleason 4 Economic Impact Study 5 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 26 Miami Beach Voter Survey, Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel Appendix A: Reasons to Oppose the Hotel Approximately 31% of those who voted against the hotel indicated other reasons. These reasons, mostly verbatim, with minor grammar changes are listed below.  Too many people, transit, congestion; island has too many structures as is  Too much development and traffic  Too many people will come  Too large, overshadowing everything  Too many hotels  Too big and too many rooms  The terms of the contract; the payment for that land was too low  The Mayor doesn’t know what he is doing  Taking away from local businesses  At the end we will pay for it  Why are they going to increase rent?  Because it does not make sense that the person comes and only stays in the hotel and does not visit the rest of Miami Beach and that would mean more traffic  Because bringing that debt into the city is too risky  For North Beach they were not unified in making hotels neither for South Beach  Overcrowded  Overdevelopment  Out of keeping, too big and traffic  I don't remember the reason  No more room on the beach  Not convenient.  More traffic and more people!  The owners of businesses are having a difficult time because there are no clients and if they build another hotel there will be less customers for the existing hotels.  Layout and size  Kickbacks and corruption  Just don’t like the idea  It’s too big  It’s tearing down the character of Miami Beach 27  It’s not needed  There is an overpopulation and the city is too small, the water sewage is not sufficient because when it rains the city floods. Other things are more important.  Government involvement  I am tired of so many buildings and I can't see the ocean  That is no benefit for the city  I understood the residents had to pay for it  Where are they going to maintain a full hotel for 800 or 600 rooms only if they had a conference in the convention every day? It is impossible.  It is a waste of money. There is sufficient hotels that provide service  Don’t trust the administration  If developer could not meet his revenue targets, he would turn back to the city for financial relief which would then fall on the taxpayer  Look for the plans of Miami Beach you can't construct a building more than 4 floors.  Bad deal for the city, not enough money for the city  It would increase the number of residents  Many concerns – traffic, overdevelopment, bad deal for the city 28 Miami Beach Voter Survey, Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel Appendix B: Reasons to Support the Hotel Listed below are the reasons some voters would support the hotel, provided in open comments. These reasons are listed verbatim with only minor grammar changes.  I believe the convention center needs a hotel where guests may stay, those individuals that have events to attend specifically in the convention center  To stop the monopoly  Would have to be smaller  Well, since I have to drive, the traffic would be horrible so I don’t know if I would support  We are undecided  Tourism  It would bring in more tourists, more people. And that is a good thing because Miami Beach is a tourist town.  Too many hotels and they are screwing over the people who live there, to build those boutique hotels and push out residents  To expand the Convention Center you need the hotel  The old one is outdated  The Convention Center needs a hotel, that is part of getting conventions  The famous architect design  Would support if the size is smaller, built in a way to accommodate infrastructure and environmental issues  I am a democrat and I support Levin and I support everything that he proposes  I would only vote in favor if they improve the quality of the people, commute and the traffic  Smaller and artistic spectacular hotel  If they do what you propose would be a great addition to the city of Miami Beach  More prosperity to Miami Beach  Would be an improvement for the city in general! I support the construction of the hotel  should be the smallest possible  Reserve opinion  They say it is needed for the Convention Center  If height is reduced it would look better  It would reduce traffic on and off the island and for positive economic reasons, to increase revenue  That I can see it would not affect the public because it would cost millions, that is why I voted against the construction of the hotel 29  To improve the traffic would improve everything else  It has not shown money  If it shows we do not have a big debt by the city  Why not include a plan that can help manage the problem of traffic which is a current problem of Miami Beach  Because it would bring more tourism  Because it would bring progress to the city.  Because the big conventions would meet in one place because everything is found there.  Because it would benefit the city.  Because they would create something new  So there can be more employment for labor.  Only if it lowered taxes  If they told me they improve the traffic, that's how they explained it to me, so that the individuals stay in one place within the convention center and would not need to move  Not really concerned  Not informed on the matter  We don’t need more hotels in Miami Beach, there is no space and the traffic is horrible, and I am a realtor and I know there is not adequate place to build  Nice to have a hotel in the center  If there is new road that won’t interfere with hotel  Need tourism  Necessity  We need more creativity for the city of Miami Beach!  More traffic to Lincoln road  More quality events to center enhancing value to city and residents  Miami Beach resident payoff  Lower rooms, reduce size, resolve traffic  It would give greater value to Miami Beach, more modern  The reasons I support is because the information given was valid and it brings progress to Miami Beach, not hard to understand  The reason is because it would agree more with the architecture of the area  It’s convenient, to become a real center  It’s progress for the city 30 Miami Beach Voter Survey, Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel  It will change the area, I would have voted if I had remembered  It has to be a smaller hotel  Increase real estate value  Improves mass transit, light rail  Improve the area  If it didn’t take land from the city and it if didn’t take business away from hotels in the area  If the lease went up more  If it were moved to the parking lot across from the Center, less room, put park in original space, mitigate the traffic problem, if it kept more with the design in the area  If it was smaller  If it is decent size and does not affect parking; there is no parking and we need the train for public transportation  It will give strippers more jobs  Funded by individuals and not by taxpayers; I like how the city will make money off it, they have to make sure it is a lot  Good for business  I am in total disagreement with everything  The traffic would be better  The traffic is too much and too many cars parked in the streets  The problem would be the parking, we need them to create more parking!  Construct on the other side  Convention Center needs better facilities near it  Chances are better for growth  Bring tourism, income and jobs  Bring in architect who will make it an innovative destination structure and attraction  Would be good for the city  Will add more value  A more equitable system of payback, considerably less than 99 years  800 cars less in the streets 31 Appendix C: Survey Questionnaire Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel Good evening. We are conducting a survey on behalf of the City of Miami Beach on the topic of the Convention Center hotel. The goal of the survey is to understand the preferences of Miami Beach residents on the topic, and to address their concerns by adjusting the Convention Center hotel accordingly. To ensure the collection of objective information, the City of Miami Beach has contracted the Metropolitan Center, a public policy institute at FIU. Your answers will remain anonymous. May we proceed? Thank you. First, let me provide a brief overview of the Convention Center facts so far. The Miami Beach Convention Center is undergoing a $600 million renovation and expansion. Convention Center and other tourism officials recommend that in order for the Center to be financially successful, it needs a “headquarter hotel” with 800 to 1,200 rooms that is adjacent to the Center. The plans are for the City to lease the land to a private developer who will privately finance the hotel construction and provide lease payments to the City. No taxpayer funds will be used in the development. Now, let me begin with the questions… 1) Did you vote in the March 15 referendum regarding the development of a Convention Center hotel?  I voted and supported  I voted and did not support  I did not vote 2) Would you support the hotel if it were the same as proposed in March?  Yes  No  Maybe/Unsure [Do not read, record if indicated] 3) What was your primary concern when you voted against the hotel development? [Do not read options, mark all indicated] [Ask only if Q1, option 2 is selected]  The height of the proposed development  The design of the development  The location of the hotel  The parking shortage it may produce  The traffic congestion it will create  Citywide traffic  Other________________________ 32 Miami Beach Voter Survey, Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel 4) To address some residents’ concerns, it has been suggested that the hotel size be reduced from 800 rooms to approximately 600 rooms. Would you be more or less likely to support the hotel if the hotel size was reduced?  More likely to support the hotel  Less likely to support the hotel  No difference 5) To address some residents’ concerns, it has been suggested that the hotel height be reduced from 288 feet to a maximum of 185 feet, which is approximately the height of the Clock Tower building at Lincoln Road and Washington Avenue. Would you be more or less likely to support the hotel if the hotel height was reduced?  More likely to support the hotel  Less likely to support the hotel  No difference 6) To address some residents’ concerns, it has been suggested that the hotel be developed on the parking lot across the street from the Convention Center that is currently planned to be a public park, instead of the parking lot behind the Fillmore. Would you be more or less likely to support the hotel at the new location?  More likely to support the hotel  Less likely to support the hotel  No difference 7) To address some residents’ concerns about height and to make it more compatible with the surrounding architecture, it has been suggested that the hotel developer rebuild and incorporate a new Fillmore Miami Beach at Jackie Gleason Theater into the hotel. Would you be more or less likely to support the hotel in that case?  More likely to support the hotel  Less likely to support the hotel  No difference  Do not believe [Do not read, record if answer provided] 8) To address some residents’ concerns about design, it has been suggested that a world-class architect be recruited to design the hotel. Would you be more or less likely to support the hotel in that case?  More likely to support the hotel  Less likely to support the hotel  No difference  Do not believe [Do not read, record if answer provided] 33 9) To address some residents’ concerns, it has been suggested that the hotel design be the product of a public process after the lease is approved. Would you be more or less likely to support the hotel in that case?  More likely to support the hotel  Less likely to support the hotel  No difference  Do not believe [Do not read, record if answer provided] 10) To address some residents’ concerns about traffic, it has been suggested that the hotel development includes a comprehensive plan to mitigate traffic in the area of the hotel. Would you be more or less likely to support the hotel?  More likely to support the hotel  Less likely to support the hotel  No difference  Do not believe [Do not read, record if answer provided] 11) What is the primary reason you would vote to support the hotel? [Do not read options, mark all indicated]  It will provide additional revenues to the city  It will help bring quality conventions to the city  It will improve the area  It will create new jobs  I would not vote in favor of the hotel  Other ______________________________________ 12) Phone (1)_______________________________________ Precinct (2)___________________________________________ Gender (3)______________________________________ Race (4)__________________________________ Party Affiliation (5) __________________________ 34 Miami Beach Voter Survey, Miami Beach Convention Center Hotel